What the recent shift in autism diagnoses means for ABA therapy 

Autism diagnosis rates are shifting, and this change is sparking conversations among clinicians, researchers, and families. Numbers reported in one of the latest CDC studies reveal that, as of 2022, autism spectrum disorder (ASD) was identified in 1 in 31 children aged 8 years, a striking increase from 1 in 44 just a few years earlier in 2018. This represents more than just numbers; it signals a shift in how autism is recognized and who is being identified, with meaningful implications for ABA therapy, broader healthcare, and society itself. 

Digging into the data, we find a complex story of both challenges and opportunities. From improvements in diagnostic tools to addressing disparities in gender and race, here’s a closer look at the trends and how they intersect with the work you do in ABA therapy. 

Why are autism diagnoses on the rise? 

The increase in autism diagnoses reflects years of progress rather than cause for concern. Here’s why these numbers are shifting: 

1. Screening standards have improved 

Pediatricians now routinely screen for developmental delays at 18 and 24 months as part of standard care. These screenings help families recognize early signs of autism that might have been overlooked before. For example, signs such as a lack of shared attention (not pointing to show interest) or delays in verbal communication are now flagged much earlier. 

2. Better awareness across communities 

For years, diagnoses disproportionately focused on certain demographics, particularly white children and boys. Today, initiatives have expanded awareness in underserved areas. Culturally relevant outreach and multilingual resources are helping families across different racial, ethnic, and socioeconomic groups better understand autism and advocate for assessments. 

3. Evolving understanding of autism 

Autism is no longer seen through a narrow framework of behaviors but as a spectrum reflecting diverse communication styles, sensory differences, and ways of interacting with the world. Updated diagnostic tools, such as the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule-Second Edition (ADOS-2), have also been refined to account for this diversity, offering more accurate assessments for individuals whose traits might have previously gone unrecognized. 

4. Generational change 

There’s a growing shift in how society views mental health and developmental differences. Stigma hasn’t disappeared, but families today may feel more empowered to seek evaluations and advocate for their children. The rise in diagnoses can partly be attributed to this cultural change. 

These factors, combined, demonstrate that higher rates of identification are a positive step—not because autism itself is increasing, but because more people are receiving the recognition and support they need. 

Autism and gender nuances 

One of the most fascinating parts of this story is what’s happening with gender and autism diagnosis. The CDC data underscores a long-standing trend: autism remains 3.4 times more likely to be diagnosed in boys than girls. But this is a ratio that’s beginning to shift, and that’s no coincidence. 

Historically, many girls have been underdiagnosed due to unique presentations of autism that don’t align with traditional diagnostic models. For instance, while a boy might communicate primarily through vocal stimming, a girl might quietly mimic social behaviors without actually understanding them, a practice you know as masking. Girls may also demonstrate intense interests in areas that appear socially typical, such as collecting dolls or mastering a craft, making these traits less noticeable compared to boys’ interests in topics like trains or superheroes, which are more readily flagged by evaluators. These nuances mean autism in girls is frequently missed or misinterpreted as anxiety, ADHD, or even just “shyness.” 

The data suggests we’re getting better at recognizing the diversity of autism presentations. This also places new demands on both diagnostic teams and ABA practitioners. By being aware of and paying attention to subtler signs, it’s possible to create a more equitable model of care for all genders. 

The impact on ABA therapy 

For ABA therapy professionals, this shift in autism prevalence represents both inspiration and a clear call to action. 

The surge in early diagnoses offers an exciting opportunity. Children born in 2018, for example, were 1.7 times more likely  to have been diagnosed or deemed eligible for autism support by age 4 than those born in 2014. This means ABA clinicians are increasingly working with children in their most formative developmental stages, paving the way for skill-building that maximizes potential. 

But there’s another layer. Rising diagnoses mean an increased demand for services -requiring ABA organizations to consider how they can expand, while maintaining individualized care. It’s not just about scaling up services; it’s about scaling up thoughtfully. This requires tools and strategies that streamline behind-the-scenes tasks, so clinicians have more time to focus on the actual clients.  

It’s also worth considering how  diagnostic inclusivity informs treatment practices. Autism is no longer narrowly defined; we now understand it as a broad spectrum. For example, a non-verbal child with co-occurring intellectual disabilities might require drastically different supports than a highly verbal adolescent navigating social complexities. Now, more than ever, ABA practitioners are tasked with flexible, person-centered care. By celebrating differences and tailoring supports to individual strengths, you ensure that interventions resonate personally and meaningfully – honoring each client’s vision of success. 

A call for societal inclusivity 

These findings also send an important message to the broader community. Autism is everywhere—not because it’s “new,” but because society is finally increasing the visibility of those who were always there. This offers an incredible opportunity to create more thoughtful, inclusive environments. 

Take the workplace as an example. With diagnoses rising, more autistic individuals will be entering adulthood and looking for meaningful employment experiences. Likewise, classrooms will increasingly include diverse neurodevelopmental needs. Both educators and employers will need practical strategies and open-minded approaches to meet the strengths and challenges of neurodiverse individuals. 

Meanwhile, the data reveals that barriers remain. ASD prevalence in families with low socioeconomic status was higher at certain surveillance sites, emphasizing how social determinants like access to comprehensive healthcare or early education still shape outcomes. To truly foster inclusivity, we must extend initiatives that make diagnosis, services, and therapy accessible to anyone who needs them. 

Looking ahead 

The growing number of autism diagnoses shouldn’t be seen as a challenge to overcome but as an opportunity to grow as a society. It’s an indicator of progress in recognizing the diversity that exists within our communities and providing tools to better support every individual. 

For ABA clinicians, these numbers serve as a reminder of the immense value you bring through your work. Early interventions and personalized care change lives; by continuing to innovate, collaborate, and expand access, you can help clients thrive in ways that ripple throughout families and beyond. 

For society at large, these statistics encourage us to reflect on how we can keep evolving into a more inclusive world. This means expanded public services, accessible education, and a recognition that differences enrich our collective experience rather than divide us. 

When we see these rising diagnosis numbers, we’re reminded of something worth celebrating—that more people, from diverse corners of life, are being heard, valued, and supported. This is progress, and it’s only the beginning. Together, we can build a future where every individual, whether diagnosed at 2 or 22, has the opportunity to flourish in their own way.